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V-Lab

CBOE Gold Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

107.35%

decreased by 8.11%

1 Week

102.01%

decreased by 13.45%

1 Month

92.14%

decreased by 23.32%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 12:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Gold Volatility Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 3, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 171% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.1201
21.71***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2188
18.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7040
66.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1381
-6.72***

Persistence:

0.854

Half-life:

4 days