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CBOE Gold Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

63.56%

decreased by 1.57%

1 Week

69.33%

increased by 4.20%

1 Month

78.19%

increased by 13.06%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:26 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Gold Volatility Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 3, 2008 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst4.1189
5.43***
αARCH0.2154
4.52***
βGARCH0.7048
16.78***
γleverage-0.1347
-1.66*

0.853

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.1189
5.43***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2154
4.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7048
16.78***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1347
-1.66*

Persistence:

0.853

Half-life:

4 days