CBOE Gold Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
123.84%
increased by 50.67%
1 Week
115.07%
increased by 41.90%
1 Month
98.24%
increased by 25.07%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 12:06 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 3, 2008 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.0999 | 5.41*** |
| αARCH | 0.2124 | 4.49*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7075 | 16.85*** |
| γleverage | -0.1327 | -1.63 |
0.854
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.0999 | 5.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2124 | 4.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7075 | 16.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1327 | -1.63 |
Persistence:
0.854
Half-life:
4 days
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