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V-Lab

CBOE Gold Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

88.88%

increased by 25.14%

1 Week

87.73%

increased by 23.99%

1 Month

85.73%

increased by 21.99%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Gold Volatility Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 3, 2008 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 167% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.1316
21.75***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2188
18.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7030
66.88***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1370
-6.67***

Persistence:

0.853

Half-life:

4 days