CBOE Gold Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
63.56%
decreased by 1.57%
1 Week
69.33%
increased by 4.20%
1 Month
78.19%
increased by 13.06%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:26 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 3, 2008 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.1189 | 5.43*** |
| αARCH | 0.2154 | 4.52*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7048 | 16.78*** |
| γleverage | -0.1347 | -1.66* |
0.853
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.1189 | 5.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2154 | 4.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7048 | 16.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1347 | -1.66* |
Persistence:
0.853
Half-life:
4 days
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