V-Lab
CBOE Gold Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
88.88%
increased by 25.14%
1 Week
87.73%
increased by 23.99%
1 Month
85.73%
increased by 21.99%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 3, 2008 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 167% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.1316 | 21.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2188 | 18.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7030 | 66.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1370 | -6.67*** |
Persistence:
0.853
Half-life:
4 days
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