V-Lab
CBOE Gold Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
78.58%
decreased by 6.06%
1 Week
80.05%
decreased by 4.59%
1 Month
82.50%
decreased by 2.14%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 3, 2008 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 167% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.1200 | 21.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2170 | 18.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7044 | 67.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1356 | -6.61*** |
Persistence:
0.854
Half-life:
4 days
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