V-Lab
CBOE Gold Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
70.94%
decreased by 2.65%
1 Week
71.91%
decreased by 1.68%
1 Month
73.71%
increased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 3, 2008 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2915 | 10.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1525 | 6.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7208 | 18.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0019 | 3.06*** |
Persistence:
0.873
Half-life:
5 days
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