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V-Lab

CBOE Gold Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

70.94%

decreased by 2.65%

1 Week

71.91%

decreased by 1.68%

1 Month

73.71%

increased by 0.12%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Gold Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 3, 2008 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2915
10.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1525
6.40***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7208
18.08***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0019
3.06***

Persistence:

0.873

Half-life:

5 days