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CBOE Gold Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 27th, 2026

1 Day

78.64%

decreased by 5.02%

1 Week

77.83%

decreased by 5.83%

1 Month

76.30%

decreased by 7.36%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 12:15 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/26/2024

to

10/26/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Gold Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 3, 2008 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2806
10.27***
αARCH0.1498
6.37***
βGARCH0.7205
17.97***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0018
3.03***

0.870

Persistence

5d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2806
10.27***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1498
6.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7205
17.97***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0018
3.03***

Persistence:

0.870

Half-life:

5 days