V-Lab
CBOE Gold Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
73.22%
decreased by 4.73%
1 Week
73.63%
decreased by 4.32%
1 Month
74.38%
decreased by 3.57%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 12:06 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 3, 2008 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2869 | 10.20*** |
| αARCH | 0.1511 | 6.40*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7209 | 18.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0018 | 3.06*** |
0.872
Persistence5d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2869 | 10.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1511 | 6.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7209 | 18.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0018 | 3.06*** |
Persistence:
0.872
Half-life:
5 days
Other CBOE Gold Volatility Index Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices