iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
102.73%
decreased by 7.72%
1 Week
110.47%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
117.09%
increased by 6.64%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6840 | 17.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2010 | 5.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5065 | 6.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0039 | -6.86*** |
Persistence:
0.708
Half-life:
2 days
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