V-Lab
iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
97.56%
increased by 1.06%
1 Week
107.85%
increased by 11.35%
1 Month
116.49%
increased by 19.99%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6814 | 18.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1972 | 5.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5109 | 6.70*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0039 | -6.95*** |
Persistence:
0.708
Half-life:
2 days
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