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V-Lab

iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

102.73%

decreased by 7.72%

1 Week

110.47%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

117.09%

increased by 6.64%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6840
17.95***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2010
5.99***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5065
6.67***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0039
-6.86***

Persistence:

0.708

Half-life:

2 days