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V-Lab

iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

79.82%

decreased by 1.76%

1 Week

87.27%

increased by 5.69%

1 Month

97.12%

increased by 15.54%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -3.72) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.4460
26.50***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1482
29.07***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6722
94.63***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-3.7187
-27.39***

Persistence:

0.820

Half-life:

3 days