V-Lab
iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
79.82%
decreased by 1.76%
1 Week
87.27%
increased by 5.69%
1 Month
97.12%
increased by 15.54%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -3.72) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.4460 | 26.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1482 | 29.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6722 | 94.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -3.7187 | -27.39*** |
Persistence:
0.820
Half-life:
3 days
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