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V-Lab

S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

84.81%

decreased by 3.60%

1 Week

91.75%

increased by 3.34%

1 Month

102.29%

increased by 13.88%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2008 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.95) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

7.0261
27.51***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1577
25.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6903
91.38***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.9504
-3.88***

Persistence:

0.848

Half-life:

4 days