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S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

85.89%

decreased by 1.32%

1 Week

91.98%

increased by 4.77%

1 Month

101.57%

increased by 14.36%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2008 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst6.5804
7.17***
αARCH0.1646
6.72***
βGARCH0.6894
24.27***
γleverage-1.0383
-1.16

0.854

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.5804
7.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1646
6.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6894
24.27***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.0383
-1.16

Persistence:

0.854

Half-life:

4 days