V-Lab
S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
85.89%
decreased by 1.32%
1 Week
91.98%
increased by 4.77%
1 Month
101.57%
increased by 14.36%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2008 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 6.5804 | 7.17*** |
| αARCH | 0.1646 | 6.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6894 | 24.27*** |
| γleverage | -1.0383 | -1.16 |
0.854
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.5804 | 7.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1646 | 6.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6894 | 24.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0383 | -1.16 |
Persistence:
0.854
Half-life:
4 days
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