V-Lab
S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
84.81%
decreased by 3.60%
1 Week
91.75%
increased by 3.34%
1 Month
102.29%
increased by 13.88%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2008 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.95) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 7.0261 | 27.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1577 | 25.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6903 | 91.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.9504 | -3.88*** |
Persistence:
0.848
Half-life:
4 days
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