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V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

89.28%

increased by 0.99%

1 Week

90.61%

increased by 2.32%

1 Month

92.69%

increased by 4.40%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2008 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7449
7.67***
αARCH0.1656
6.13***
βGARCH0.6731
15.99***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ1-0.0454
-1.88*
γ20.0674
1.94*
γ3-0.0456
-2.12**
γ40.0358
2.37**

0.839

Persistence

4d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7449
7.67***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1656
6.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6731
15.99***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ1-0.0454
-1.88*
γ20.0674
1.94*
γ3-0.0456
-2.12**
γ40.0358
2.37**

Persistence:

0.839

Half-life:

4 days