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V-Lab

S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026

1 Day

87.11%

increased by 5.77%

1 Week

88.96%

increased by 7.62%

1 Month

91.83%

increased by 10.49%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/24/2024

to

09/24/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2008 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7452
7.71***
αARCH0.1648
6.13***
βGARCH0.6735
16.03***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ1-0.0450
-1.88*
γ20.0669
1.94*
γ3-0.0453
-2.13**
γ40.0355
2.39**

0.838

Persistence

4d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7452
7.71***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1648
6.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6735
16.03***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ1-0.0450
-1.88*
γ20.0669
1.94*
γ3-0.0453
-2.13**
γ40.0355
2.39**

Persistence:

0.838

Half-life:

4 days