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V-Lab

S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

84.46%

decreased by 1.01%

1 Week

92.64%

increased by 7.17%

1 Month

105.91%

increased by 20.44%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2008 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9232
14.23***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1466
5.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7190
17.94***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0007
-1.53

Persistence:

0.866

Half-life:

5 days