Skip to main content
V-Lab

S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

86.37%

decreased by 1.40%

1 Week

93.98%

increased by 6.21%

1 Month

106.44%

increased by 18.67%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2008 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9232
14.23***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1466
5.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7190
17.94***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0007
-1.53

Persistence:

0.866

Half-life:

5 days