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V-Lab

S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

73.76%

decreased by 0.42%

1 Week

79.65%

increased by 5.47%

1 Month

88.17%

increased by 13.99%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2008 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7455
7.74***
αARCH0.1648
6.13***
βGARCH0.6726
15.95***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ1-0.0449
-1.89*
γ20.0667
1.95*
γ3-0.0454
-2.16**
γ40.0356
2.42**

0.837

Persistence

4d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7455
7.74***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1648
6.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6726
15.95***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ1-0.0449
-1.89*
γ20.0667
1.95*
γ3-0.0454
-2.16**
γ40.0356
2.42**

Persistence:

0.837

Half-life:

4 days