S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
73.76%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Week
79.65%
increased by 5.47%
1 Month
88.17%
increased by 13.99%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2008 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7455 | 7.74*** |
| αARCH | 0.1648 | 6.13*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6726 | 15.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0449 | -1.89* |
| γ2 | 0.0667 | 1.95* |
| γ3 | -0.0454 | -2.16** |
| γ4 | 0.0356 | 2.42** |
0.837
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7455 | 7.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1648 | 6.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6726 | 15.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0449 | -1.89* |
| γ2 | 0.0667 | 1.95* |
| γ3 | -0.0454 | -2.16** |
| γ4 | 0.0356 | 2.42** |
Persistence:
0.837
Half-life:
4 days
Other S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices