V-Lab
S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026
1 Day
87.11%
increased by 5.77%
1 Week
88.96%
increased by 7.62%
1 Month
91.83%
increased by 10.49%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2008 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7452 | 7.71*** |
| αARCH | 0.1648 | 6.13*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6735 | 16.03*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0450 | -1.88* |
| γ2 | 0.0669 | 1.94* |
| γ3 | -0.0453 | -2.13** |
| γ4 | 0.0355 | 2.39** |
0.838
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7452 | 7.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1648 | 6.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6735 | 16.03*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0450 | -1.88* |
| γ2 | 0.0669 | 1.94* |
| γ3 | -0.0453 | -2.13** |
| γ4 | 0.0355 | 2.39** |
Persistence:
0.838
Half-life:
4 days
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