V-Lab
S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
86.37%
decreased by 1.40%
1 Week
93.98%
increased by 6.21%
1 Month
106.44%
increased by 18.67%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2008 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9232 | 14.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1466 | 5.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7190 | 17.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0007 | -1.53 |
Persistence:
0.866
Half-life:
5 days
Other S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices