V-Lab
CBOE Amazon Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
82.51%
decreased by 1.81%
1 Week
104.11%
increased by 19.79%
1 Month
113.23%
increased by 28.91%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1045 | 6.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4945 | 4.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0166 | 0.95 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0951 | 2.44** |
| γ2 | -0.1806 | -2.98*** |
| γ3 | 0.1198 | 2.90*** |
| γ4 | -0.0348 | -1.43 |
Persistence:
0.511
Half-life:
1 days
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