V-Lab
CBOE Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
118.45%
decreased by 4.84%
1 Week
121.68%
decreased by 1.61%
1 Month
127.01%
increased by 3.72%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9796 | 10.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1363 | 7.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7169 | 20.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0026 | 3.13*** |
| γ2 | -0.0038 | -3.74*** |
Persistence:
0.853
Half-life:
4 days
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