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V-Lab

CBOE Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

131.59%

increased by 12.71%

1 Week

131.33%

increased by 12.45%

1 Month

130.89%

increased by 12.01%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9798
10.35***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1364
7.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7167
20.25***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0026
3.12***
γ2-0.0038
-3.72***

Persistence:

0.853

Half-life:

4 days