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V-Lab

CBOE Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

113.58%

increased by 6.78%

1 Week

118.05%

increased by 11.25%

1 Month

125.31%

increased by 18.51%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9778
10.35***
αARCH0.1366
7.50***
βGARCH0.7162
20.22***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0026
3.07***
γ2-0.0038
-3.67***

0.853

Persistence

4d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9778
10.35***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1366
7.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7162
20.22***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0026
3.07***
γ2-0.0038
-3.67***

Persistence:

0.853

Half-life:

4 days