V-Lab
DAX Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
88.56%
increased by 1.95%
1 Week
91.52%
increased by 4.91%
1 Month
97.46%
increased by 10.85%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1992 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7110 | 17.09*** |
| αARCH | 0.1162 | 8.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7772 | 30.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -6.74*** |
0.893
Persistence6d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7110 | 17.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1162 | 8.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7772 | 30.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -6.74*** |
Persistence:
0.893
Half-life:
6 days
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