Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

DAX Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

88.56%

increased by 1.95%

1 Week

91.52%

increased by 4.91%

1 Month

97.46%

increased by 10.85%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of DAX Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1992 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7110
17.09***
αARCH0.1162
8.15***
βGARCH0.7772
30.10***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0006
-6.74***

0.893

Persistence

6d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7110
17.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1162
8.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7772
30.10***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0006
-6.74***

Persistence:

0.893

Half-life:

6 days