V-Lab
DAX Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
83.89%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Week
88.10%
increased by 3.92%
1 Month
96.39%
increased by 12.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1992 to Apr 30, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7092 | 16.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1164 | 8.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7776 | 30.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -6.77*** |
Persistence:
0.894
Half-life:
6 days
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