V-Lab
DAX Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
125.32%
increased by 37.13%
1 Week
121.53%
increased by 33.34%
1 Month
113.11%
increased by 24.92%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1992 to Apr 30, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7092 | 16.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1164 | 8.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7776 | 30.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -6.77*** |
Persistence:
0.894
Half-life:
6 days
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