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V-Lab

DAX Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

125.32%

increased by 37.13%

1 Week

121.53%

increased by 33.34%

1 Month

113.11%

increased by 24.92%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of DAX Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1992 to Apr 30, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7092
16.88***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1164
8.11***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7776
30.11***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0006
-6.77***

Persistence:

0.894

Half-life:

6 days