V-Lab
CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
9.46%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Week
9.63%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Month
10.21%
increased by 0.38%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2006 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1079 | 6.42*** |
| αARCH | 0.1084 | 8.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8698 | 63.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0013 | 1.63 |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1079 | 6.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1084 | 8.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8698 | 63.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0013 | 1.63 |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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