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CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

9.46%

decreased by 0.37%

1 Week

9.63%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Month

10.21%

increased by 0.38%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 31, 2006 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1079
6.42***
αARCH0.1084
8.72***
βGARCH0.8698
63.49***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0013
1.63

0.978

Persistence

31d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1079
6.42***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1084
8.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8698
63.49***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0013
1.63

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days