V-Lab
CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
10.50%
increased by 0.74%
1 Week
10.61%
increased by 0.85%
1 Month
11.00%
increased by 1.24%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 32 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1086 | 6.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1084 | 8.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8700 | 63.42*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0013 | 1.61 |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
32 days
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