V-Lab
CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
9.54%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Week
9.79%
increased by 0.15%
1 Month
10.60%
increased by 0.96%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 35 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 35 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 35-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0168 | 3.93*** |
| αARCH | 0.1071 | 7.87*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8731 | 63.55*** |
0.980
Persistence35d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0168 | 3.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1071 | 7.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8731 | 63.55*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
35 days
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