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V-Lab

CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

11.09%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Week

11.37%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Month

12.28%

increased by 0.86%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 31, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.46) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0012
0.66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1138
28.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8611
213.51***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4584
18.99***

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

27 days