V-Lab
CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
11.09%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
11.37%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
12.28%
increased by 0.86%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.46) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0012 | 0.66 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1138 | 28.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8611 | 213.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4584 | 18.99*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
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