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CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

9.80%

decreased by 0.30%

1 Week

10.09%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

11.08%

increased by 0.98%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 31, 2006 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 235% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 235% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0178
4.74***
αARCH0.0544
1.84*
βGARCH0.8657
47.44***
γleverage0.1278
2.91***

0.984

Persistence

43d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0178
4.74***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0544
1.84*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8657
47.44***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1278
2.91***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

43 days