CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026
1 Day
9.59%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Week
9.89%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Month
10.91%
increased by 0.87%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 01:51 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2006 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 235% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 235% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0178 | 4.73*** |
| αARCH | 0.0543 | 1.84* |
| βGARCH | 0.8660 | 47.51*** |
| γleverage | 0.1274 | 2.91*** |
0.984
Persistence43d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0178 | 4.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0543 | 1.84* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8660 | 47.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1274 | 2.91*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
43 days
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