V-Lab
CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
10.96%
increased by 0.55%
1 Week
11.09%
increased by 0.68%
1 Month
11.55%
increased by 1.14%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2006 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.26 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8469 | 6.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0951 | 28.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9844 | 411.73*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.2602 | 5.88*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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