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CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

9.54%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Week

9.74%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Month

10.41%

increased by 0.52%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 31, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.28 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 44-day half-lifev = 7.28 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8425
1.76*
αARCH0.0952
7.01***
βGARCH0.9844
103.02***
νDF7.2833
1.46

0.984

Persistence

44d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8425
1.76*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0952
7.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9844
103.02***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.2833
1.46

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

44 days