CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026
1 Day
8.78%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Week
9.01%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Month
9.81%
increased by 0.54%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 01:51 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2006 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.32 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 44-day half-lifev = 7.32 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 0.8369 | 1.78* |
| αscore | 0.0948 | 7.02*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9843 | 104.10*** |
| νDF | 7.3235 | 1.46 |
0.984
Persistence44d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 0.8369 | 1.78* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0948 | 7.02*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9843 | 104.10*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.3235 | 1.46 |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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