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CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

10.96%

increased by 0.55%

1 Week

11.09%

increased by 0.68%

1 Month

11.55%

increased by 1.14%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 31, 2006 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.26 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8469
6.98***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0951
28.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9844
411.73***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.2602
5.88***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

44 days