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V-Lab

CBOE S&P 500 9-Day Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

198.62%

decreased by 6.20%

1 Week

198.49%

decreased by 6.33%

1 Month

198.34%

decreased by 6.48%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE S&P 500 9-Day Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2011 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

155.9845
19.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1145
10.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7727
50.62***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.1844
3.23***

Persistence:

0.773

Half-life:

3 days