Skip to main content
V-Lab

CBOE S&P 500 9-Day Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

192.44%

decreased by 18.65%

1 Week

194.47%

decreased by 16.62%

1 Month

196.84%

decreased by 14.25%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE S&P 500 9-Day Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.21 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

155.5397
19.43***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1142
10.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7717
50.78***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.2100
3.20***

Persistence:

0.772

Half-life:

3 days