V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 9-Day Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
204.82%
decreased by 9.23%
1 Week
202.47%
decreased by 11.58%
1 Month
199.65%
decreased by 14.40%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2011 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 155.9845 | 19.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1145 | 10.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7727 | 50.62*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.1844 | 3.23*** |
Persistence:
0.773
Half-life:
3 days
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