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V-Lab

S&P / TSX 60 VIX Index CAD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

120.65%

decreased by 18.68%

1 Week

122.16%

decreased by 17.17%

1 Month

124.97%

decreased by 14.36%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of S&P / TSX 60 VIX Index CAD GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2017 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.73 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-lifev = 3.73 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run64.3097
2.10**
αscore0.1410
3.54***
βpersistence0.8745
16.00***
νDF3.7305
1.72*

0.875

Persistence

5d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

64.3097
2.10**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1410
3.54***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.8745
16.00***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.7305
1.72*

Persistence:

0.875

Half-life:

5 days