V-Lab
S&P / TSX 60 VIX Index CAD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
79.61%
decreased by 3.88%
1 Week
90.12%
increased by 6.63%
1 Month
109.60%
increased by 26.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2017 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.80 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 64.2136 | 6.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1294 | 13.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8998 | 69.67*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.7998 | 6.17*** |
Persistence:
0.900
Half-life:
7 days
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