V-Lab
S&P / TSX 60 VIX Index CAD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026
1 Day
111.65%
decreased by 2.24%
1 Week
115.35%
increased by 1.46%
1 Month
122.04%
increased by 8.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:06 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2017 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.73 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-lifev = 3.73 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 64.3724 | 2.12** |
| αARCH | 0.1419 | 3.53*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8731 | 15.88*** |
| νDF | 3.7344 | 1.72* |
0.873
Persistence5d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 64.3724 | 2.12** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1419 | 3.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8731 | 15.88*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.7344 | 1.72* |
Persistence:
0.873
Half-life:
5 days
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