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V-Lab

S&P / TSX 60 VIX Index CAD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

90.21%

decreased by 7.53%

1 Week

97.95%

increased by 0.21%

1 Month

113.02%

increased by 15.28%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:22 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of S&P / TSX 60 VIX Index CAD GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2017 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.80 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

64.2136
6.98***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1294
13.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8998
69.67***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.7998
6.17***

Persistence:

0.900

Half-life:

7 days