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S&P / TSX 60 VIX Index CAD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026

1 Day

111.65%

decreased by 2.24%

1 Week

115.35%

increased by 1.46%

1 Month

122.04%

increased by 8.15%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:06 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/24/2024

to

09/24/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of S&P / TSX 60 VIX Index CAD GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2017 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.73 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-lifev = 3.73 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst64.3724
2.12**
αARCH0.1419
3.53***
βGARCH0.8731
15.88***
νDF3.7344
1.72*

0.873

Persistence

5d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

64.3724
2.12**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1419
3.53***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8731
15.88***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.7344
1.72*

Persistence:

0.873

Half-life:

5 days