S&P / TSX 60 VIX Index CAD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
120.65%
decreased by 18.68%
1 Week
122.16%
decreased by 17.17%
1 Month
124.97%
decreased by 14.36%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2017 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.73 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-lifev = 3.73 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 64.3097 | 2.10** |
| αscore | 0.1410 | 3.54*** |
| βpersistence | 0.8745 | 16.00*** |
| νDF | 3.7305 | 1.72* |
0.875
Persistence5d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 64.3097 | 2.10** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1410 | 3.54*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.8745 | 16.00*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.7305 | 1.72* |
Persistence:
0.875
Half-life:
5 days
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