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V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P / TSX 60 VIX Index CAD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

88.46%

decreased by 5.56%

1 Week

99.06%

increased by 5.04%

1 Month

115.92%

increased by 21.90%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of S&P / TSX 60 VIX Index CAD GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2017 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.73 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-lifev = 3.73 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst64.6861
2.17**
αARCH0.1436
3.47***
βGARCH0.8659
15.39***
νDF3.7287
1.70*

0.866

Persistence

5d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

64.6861
2.17**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1436
3.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8659
15.39***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.7287
1.70*

Persistence:

0.866

Half-life:

5 days