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V-Lab

iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

91.00%

decreased by 6.72%

1 Week

93.05%

decreased by 4.67%

1 Month

97.49%

decreased by 0.23%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.40 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

41.5101
14.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1110
17.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9047
110.30***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.3978
4.82***

Persistence:

0.905

Half-life:

7 days