V-Lab
iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
87.30%
decreased by 1.48%
1 Week
90.02%
increased by 1.24%
1 Month
95.91%
increased by 7.13%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.35 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 41.5928 | 13.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1082 | 17.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9077 | 111.12*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.3538 | 4.82*** |
Persistence:
0.908
Half-life:
7 days
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