iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
91.00%
decreased by 6.72%
1 Week
93.05%
decreased by 4.67%
1 Month
97.49%
decreased by 0.23%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.40 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 41.5101 | 14.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1110 | 17.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9047 | 110.30*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.3978 | 4.82*** |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
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