V-Lab
iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
90.81%
decreased by 3.84%
1 Week
91.67%
decreased by 2.98%
1 Month
94.31%
decreased by 0.34%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 11:39 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1677 | 8.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0997 | 14.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9547 | 224.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1222 | 21.46*** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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