V-Lab
iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
105.45%
decreased by 3.28%
1 Week
117.61%
increased by 8.88%
1 Month
127.66%
increased by 18.93%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7264 | 15.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1956 | 5.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5104 | 6.52*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0004 | -0.17 |
Persistence:
0.706
Half-life:
2 days
Other iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices