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V-Lab

iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

105.45%

decreased by 3.28%

1 Week

117.61%

increased by 8.88%

1 Month

127.66%

increased by 18.93%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7264
15.99***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1956
5.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5104
6.52***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0004
-0.17

Persistence:

0.706

Half-life:

2 days