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V-Lab

CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

135.91%

decreased by 14.64%

1 Week

126.45%

decreased by 24.10%

1 Month

108.71%

decreased by 41.84%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 10, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5556
5.54***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1362
4.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7133
13.34***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.5297
-2.42**
γ20.8241
2.56**
γ3-0.5345
-2.13**
γ40.4182
1.37
γ5-0.3705
-1.43
γ60.4610
2.25**
γ7-0.3624
-1.31
γ8-0.1952
-0.55
γ90.7505
2.28**
γ10-0.8580
-2.46**

Persistence:

0.849

Half-life:

4 days