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V-Lab
V-Lab

CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

142.13%

increased by 55.43%

1 Week

131.69%

increased by 44.99%

1 Month

111.80%

increased by 25.10%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 10, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.5610
5.58***
αARCH0.1366
4.70***
βGARCH0.7149
13.76***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.5031
-2.32**
γ20.7799
2.44**
γ3-0.5035
-2.07**
γ40.3963
1.33
γ5-0.3600
-1.41
γ60.4749
2.43**
γ7-0.4216
-1.60
γ8-0.1043
-0.30
γ90.6861
2.01**
γ10-0.8576
-2.44**

0.852

Persistence

4d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5610
5.58***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1366
4.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7149
13.76***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.5031
-2.32**
γ20.7799
2.44**
γ3-0.5035
-2.07**
γ40.3963
1.33
γ5-0.3600
-1.41
γ60.4749
2.43**
γ7-0.4216
-1.60
γ8-0.1043
-0.30
γ90.6861
2.01**
γ10-0.8576
-2.44**

Persistence:

0.852

Half-life:

4 days