V-Lab
CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
142.13%
increased by 55.43%
1 Week
131.69%
increased by 44.99%
1 Month
111.80%
increased by 25.10%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5610 | 5.58*** |
| αARCH | 0.1366 | 4.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7149 | 13.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.5031 | -2.32** |
| γ2 | 0.7799 | 2.44** |
| γ3 | -0.5035 | -2.07** |
| γ4 | 0.3963 | 1.33 |
| γ5 | -0.3600 | -1.41 |
| γ6 | 0.4749 | 2.43** |
| γ7 | -0.4216 | -1.60 |
| γ8 | -0.1043 | -0.30 |
| γ9 | 0.6861 | 2.01** |
| γ10 | -0.8576 | -2.44** |
0.852
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5610 | 5.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1366 | 4.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7149 | 13.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.5031 | -2.32** |
| γ2 | 0.7799 | 2.44** |
| γ3 | -0.5035 | -2.07** |
| γ4 | 0.3963 | 1.33 |
| γ5 | -0.3600 | -1.41 |
| γ6 | 0.4749 | 2.43** |
| γ7 | -0.4216 | -1.60 |
| γ8 | -0.1043 | -0.30 |
| γ9 | 0.6861 | 2.01** |
| γ10 | -0.8576 | -2.44** |
Persistence:
0.852
Half-life:
4 days
Other CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices