CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
135.91%
decreased by 14.64%
1 Week
126.45%
decreased by 24.10%
1 Month
108.71%
decreased by 41.84%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5556 | 5.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1362 | 4.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7133 | 13.34*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.5297 | -2.42** |
| γ2 | 0.8241 | 2.56** |
| γ3 | -0.5345 | -2.13** |
| γ4 | 0.4182 | 1.37 |
| γ5 | -0.3705 | -1.43 |
| γ6 | 0.4610 | 2.25** |
| γ7 | -0.3624 | -1.31 |
| γ8 | -0.1952 | -0.55 |
| γ9 | 0.7505 | 2.28** |
| γ10 | -0.8580 | -2.46** |
Persistence:
0.849
Half-life:
4 days
Other CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices