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V-Lab

S&P / TSX 60 VIX Index CAD Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026

1 Day

70.15%

decreased by 8.03%

1 Week

66.34%

decreased by 11.84%

1 Month

62.68%

decreased by 15.50%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:06 PM UTC

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graph of S&P / TSX 60 VIX Index CAD SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2017 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2920
7.74***
αARCH0.2394
5.95***
βGARCH0.4661
5.84***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ10.6388
4.56***
γ2-0.7147
-3.27***
γ3-0.2686
-1.34
γ40.8465
3.49***
γ5-1.3454
-4.99***

0.705

Persistence

2d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2920
7.74***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2394
5.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4661
5.84***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ10.6388
4.56***
γ2-0.7147
-3.27***
γ3-0.2686
-1.34
γ40.8465
3.49***
γ5-1.3454
-4.99***

Persistence:

0.705

Half-life:

2 days