V-Lab
S&P / TSX 60 VIX Index CAD Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026
1 Day
70.15%
decreased by 8.03%
1 Week
66.34%
decreased by 11.84%
1 Month
62.68%
decreased by 15.50%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2017 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2920 | 7.74*** |
| αARCH | 0.2394 | 5.95*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4661 | 5.84*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.6388 | 4.56*** |
| γ2 | -0.7147 | -3.27*** |
| γ3 | -0.2686 | -1.34 |
| γ4 | 0.8465 | 3.49*** |
| γ5 | -1.3454 | -4.99*** |
0.705
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2920 | 7.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2394 | 5.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4661 | 5.84*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.6388 | 4.56*** |
| γ2 | -0.7147 | -3.27*** |
| γ3 | -0.2686 | -1.34 |
| γ4 | 0.8465 | 3.49*** |
| γ5 | -1.3454 | -4.99*** |
Persistence:
0.705
Half-life:
2 days
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