V-Lab
S&P / TSX 60 VIX Index CAD Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
456.45%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Week
532.74%
increased by 76.04%
1 Month
603.47%
increased by 146.77%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2017 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2147 | 7.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2337 | 6.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5134 | 6.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.4434 | 5.24*** |
| γ2 | -0.7844 | -5.27*** |
| γ3 | 0.6731 | 4.65*** |
Persistence:
0.747
Half-life:
2 days
Other S&P / TSX 60 VIX Index CAD Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices