Skip to main content
V-Lab

CBOE Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

94.71%

decreased by 3.58%

1 Week

101.08%

increased by 2.79%

1 Month

110.98%

increased by 12.69%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Volatility Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0098
10.38***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1368
7.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7131
19.96***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0035
3.53***
γ2-0.0062
-3.29***

Persistence:

0.850

Half-life:

4 days