V-Lab
CBOE Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
94.71%
decreased by 3.58%
1 Week
101.08%
increased by 2.79%
1 Month
110.98%
increased by 12.69%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0098 | 10.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1368 | 7.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7131 | 19.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0035 | 3.53*** |
| γ2 | -0.0062 | -3.29*** |
Persistence:
0.850
Half-life:
4 days
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