CBOE Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026
1 Day
141.96%
1 Week
134.89%
1 Month
121.96%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 01:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.2077 | 9.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7494 | 32.97*** |
| γleverage | -0.2077 | -7.48*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0455 | 1.14 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0044 | 2.99*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9945 | 472.00*** |
0.853
Persistence4d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2077 | 9.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7494 | 32.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2077 | -7.48*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0455 | 1.14 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0044 | 2.99*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9945 | 472.00*** |
Persistence:
0.853
Half-life:
4 days
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