V-Lab
CBOE Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
101.37%
1 Week
104.17%
1 Month
108.82%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 31 | |
| αARCH | 0.2059 | 9.02*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7523 | 33.39*** |
| γleverage | -0.2059 | -7.47*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0466 | 1.14 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0045 | 2.97*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9944 | 459.51*** |
0.855
Persistence4d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2059 | 9.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7523 | 33.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2059 | -7.47*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0466 | 1.14 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0045 | 2.97*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9944 | 459.51*** |
Persistence:
0.855
Half-life:
4 days
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