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V-Lab

CBOE Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

136.21%

increased by 23.59%

1 Week

131.06%

increased by 18.44%

1 Month

122.15%

increased by 9.53%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2073
44.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7472
102.51***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2073
-29.59***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0450
1.46
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0045
3.51***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9944
553.39***

Persistence:

0.851

Half-life:

4 days