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V-Lab

CBOE Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

109.97%

increased by 10.51%

1 Week

111.08%

increased by 11.62%

1 Month

112.72%

increased by 13.26%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2079
44.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7468
102.62***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2079
-29.79***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0451
1.47
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0045
3.50***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9945
555.57***

Persistence:

0.851

Half-life:

4 days