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CBOE Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

101.37%

decreased by 3.51%

1 Week

104.17%

decreased by 0.71%

1 Month

108.82%

increased by 3.94%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow31
αARCH0.2059
9.02***
βGARCH0.7523
33.39***
γleverage-0.2059
-7.47***
λ₁tau intercept0.0466
1.14
λ₂forecast adj.0.0045
2.97***
λ₃tau persistence0.9944
459.51***

0.855

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2059
9.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7523
33.39***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2059
-7.47***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0466
1.14
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0045
2.97***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9944
459.51***

Persistence:

0.855

Half-life:

4 days