V-Lab
CBOE Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
136.21%
1 Week
131.06%
1 Month
122.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2073 | 44.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7472 | 102.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2073 | -29.59*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0450 | 1.46 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0045 | 3.51*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9944 | 553.39*** |
Persistence:
0.851
Half-life:
4 days
Other CBOE Volatility Index Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices