V-Lab
KOSPI 200 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
65.13%
1 Week
69.18%
1 Month
76.91%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2003 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2107 | 22.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7884 | 62.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2107 | -24.10*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0978 | 2.09** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0055 | 3.14*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9911 | 380.31*** |
Persistence:
0.894
Half-life:
6 days
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