KOSPI 200 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
198.91%
1 Week
182.64%
1 Month
142.75%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2003 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 81 | |
| αARCH | 0.2089 | 5.51*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7877 | 21.87*** |
| γleverage | -0.2089 | -5.45*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0963 | 0.84 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0055 | 1.91* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9912 | 171.45*** |
0.892
Persistence6d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2089 | 5.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7877 | 21.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2089 | -5.45*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0963 | 0.84 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0055 | 1.91* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9912 | 171.45*** |
Persistence:
0.892
Half-life:
6 days
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