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V-Lab

India NSE Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

81.49%

decreased by 4.12%

1 Week

83.18%

decreased by 2.43%

1 Month

85.91%

increased by 0.30%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:19 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of India NSE Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 3, 2008 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 379% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1812
21.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7028
52.09***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1434
-15.14***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1106
1.24
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0040
1.59
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9918
184.39***

Persistence:

0.812

Half-life:

3 days