CBOE Google Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
78.85%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Week
93.05%
increased by 13.79%
1 Month
98.37%
increased by 19.11%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3419 | 19.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1126 | 6.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0164 | 0.53 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.7791 | 0.39 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0210 | 0.63 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9668 | 17.08*** |
Persistence:
0.463
Half-life:
1 days
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