V-Lab
Deutsche Bank FX Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
42.87%
1 Week
41.60%
1 Month
39.86%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 29, 2001 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 186% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3121 | 34.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6304 | 67.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2030 | -16.28*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0318 | 3.26*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0536 | 6.34*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9435 | 99.10*** |
Persistence:
0.841
Half-life:
4 days
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