HSI Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
81.61%
1 Week
81.56%
1 Month
81.43%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 16, 2010 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.1543 | 6.28*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8348 | 31.06*** |
| γleverage | -0.1543 | -4.66*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.1085 | 0.29 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9959 | 75.59*** |
0.912
Persistence8d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1543 | 6.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8348 | 31.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1543 | -4.66*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1085 | 0.29 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9959 | 75.59*** |
Persistence:
0.912
Half-life:
8 days
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