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HSI Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

61.51%

decreased by 1.14%

1 Week

64.51%

increased by 1.86%

1 Month

70.93%

increased by 8.28%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of HSI Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 16, 2010 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow101
αARCH0.1618
5.94***
βGARCH0.8095
29.30***
γleverage-0.1618
-4.33***
λ₁tau intercept10.0000
0.77
λ₂forecast adj.0.1971
0.71
λ₃tau persistence0.4322
0.59

0.890

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

101
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1618
5.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8095
29.30***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1618
-4.33***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.77
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1971
0.71
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.4322
0.59

Persistence:

0.890

Half-life:

6 days