V-Lab
HSI Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
61.51%
1 Week
64.51%
1 Month
70.93%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 16, 2010 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 101 | |
| αARCH | 0.1618 | 5.94*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8095 | 29.30*** |
| γleverage | -0.1618 | -4.33*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.77 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1971 | 0.71 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.4322 | 0.59 |
0.890
Persistence6d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 101 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1618 | 5.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8095 | 29.30*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1618 | -4.33*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.77 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1971 | 0.71 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.4322 | 0.59 |
Persistence:
0.890
Half-life:
6 days
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