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HSI Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026

1 Day

63.43%

decreased by 0.83%

1 Week

66.62%

increased by 2.36%

1 Month

73.54%

increased by 9.28%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM UTC

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graph of HSI Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 16, 2010 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow126
αARCH0.1566
6.31***
βGARCH0.8339
30.98***
γleverage-0.1566
-4.68***
λ₁tau intercept0.1064
0.29
λ₂forecast adj.0.0000
0.00
λ₃tau persistence0.9959
78.01***

0.912

Persistence

8d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1566
6.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8339
30.98***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1566
-4.68***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1064
0.29
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9959
78.01***

Persistence:

0.912

Half-life:

8 days