HSI Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
66.08%
1 Week
68.03%
1 Month
73.27%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 16, 2010 to Nov 19, 2021Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1350 | 25.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8688 | 90.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1326 | -9.31*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 3.1853 | 0.36 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0210 | 0.35 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8603 | 2.18** |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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