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HSI Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

81.61%

increased by 5.00%

1 Week

81.56%

increased by 4.95%

1 Month

81.43%

increased by 4.82%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of HSI Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 16, 2010 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow126
αARCH0.1543
6.28***
βGARCH0.8348
31.06***
γleverage-0.1543
-4.66***
λ₁tau intercept0.1085
0.29
λ₂forecast adj.0.0000
0.00
λ₃tau persistence0.9959
75.59***

0.912

Persistence

8d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1543
6.28***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8348
31.06***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1543
-4.66***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1085
0.29
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9959
75.59***

Persistence:

0.912

Half-life:

8 days