V-Lab
HSI Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026
1 Day
63.43%
1 Week
66.62%
1 Month
73.54%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 16, 2010 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.1566 | 6.31*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8339 | 30.98*** |
| γleverage | -0.1566 | -4.68*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.1064 | 0.29 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9959 | 78.01*** |
0.912
Persistence8d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1566 | 6.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8339 | 30.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1566 | -4.68*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1064 | 0.29 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9959 | 78.01*** |
Persistence:
0.912
Half-life:
8 days
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