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V-Lab

CBOE IBM Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026

1 Day

98.02%

decreased by 1.08%

1 Week

112.29%

increased by 13.19%

1 Month

121.31%

increased by 22.21%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 11:38 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of CBOE IBM Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.4709
20.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3845
18.20***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.4479
-18.18***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.05
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8371
0.23

Persistence:

0.631

Half-life:

2 days