V-Lab
CBOE IBM Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
96.82%
1 Week
111.64%
1 Month
121.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4715 | 20.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3883 | 18.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.4489 | -18.13*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.05 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8369 | 0.24 |
Persistence:
0.635
Half-life:
2 days
Other CBOE IBM Volatility Index Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices