V-Lab
CBOE IBM Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026
1 Day
98.02%
1 Week
112.29%
1 Month
121.31%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 11:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4709 | 20.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3845 | 18.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.4479 | -18.18*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.05 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8371 | 0.23 |
Persistence:
0.631
Half-life:
2 days
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