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CBOE IBM Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

87.13%

decreased by 3.55%

1 Week

99.06%

increased by 8.38%

1 Month

121.67%

increased by 30.99%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE IBM Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

81.2703
3.53***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1278
14.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9052
31.59***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.4979
17.08***

Persistence:

0.905

Half-life:

7 days