V-Lab
CBOE IBM Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
87.13%
decreased by 3.55%
1 Week
99.06%
increased by 8.38%
1 Month
121.67%
increased by 30.99%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 81.2703 | 3.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1278 | 14.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9052 | 31.59*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.4979 | 17.08*** |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
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