Skip to main content
V-Lab

CBOE IBM Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

109.69%

increased by 20.10%

1 Week

116.27%

increased by 26.68%

1 Month

129.86%

increased by 40.27%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:38 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE IBM Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.49 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

82.1017
3.50***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1276
14.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9057
31.47***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.4932
17.16***

Persistence:

0.906

Half-life:

7 days