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CBOE IBM Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

137.33%

increased by 27.11%

1 Week

138.43%

increased by 28.21%

1 Month

140.89%

increased by 30.67%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE IBM Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

81.9558
3.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1274
14.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9074
31.81***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.4957
17.20***

Persistence:

0.907

Half-life:

7 days