Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

CBOE IBM Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

101.79%

decreased by 13.97%

1 Week

110.00%

decreased by 5.76%

1 Month

126.52%

increased by 10.76%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 03:41 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE IBM Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 2.50 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst81.1807
0.88
αARCH0.1276
3.61***
βGARCH0.9054
7.89***
νDF2.4970
4.27***

0.905

Persistence

7d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

81.1807
0.88
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1276
3.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9054
7.89***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.4970
4.27***

Persistence:

0.905

Half-life:

7 days