CBOE IBM Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
137.33%
increased by 27.11%
1 Week
138.43%
increased by 28.21%
1 Month
140.89%
increased by 30.67%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 81.9558 | 3.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1274 | 14.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9074 | 31.81*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.4957 | 17.20*** |
Persistence:
0.907
Half-life:
7 days
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