V-Lab
CBOE IBM Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
109.69%
increased by 20.10%
1 Week
116.27%
increased by 26.68%
1 Month
129.86%
increased by 40.27%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.49 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 82.1017 | 3.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1276 | 14.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9057 | 31.47*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.4932 | 17.16*** |
Persistence:
0.906
Half-life:
7 days
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