V-Lab
iTraxx/CBOE Europe Crossover 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
113.03%
increased by 21.18%
1 Week
111.65%
increased by 19.80%
1 Month
107.90%
increased by 16.05%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.05 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 40.7029 | 10.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0940 | 16.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9342 | 143.79*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.0525 | 4.83*** |
Persistence:
0.934
Half-life:
10 days
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