V-Lab
iTraxx/CBOE Europe Crossover 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
97.46%
decreased by 5.86%
1 Week
97.93%
decreased by 5.39%
1 Month
99.18%
decreased by 4.14%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 11:39 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.04 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 40.7089 | 10.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0925 | 16.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9354 | 144.19*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.0373 | 4.80*** |
Persistence:
0.935
Half-life:
10 days
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