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V-Lab

iTraxx/CBOE Europe Crossover 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

113.03%

increased by 21.18%

1 Week

111.65%

increased by 19.80%

1 Month

107.90%

increased by 16.05%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of iTraxx/CBOE Europe Crossover 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.05 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

40.7029
10.25***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0940
16.88***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9342
143.79***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.0525
4.83***

Persistence:

0.934

Half-life:

10 days