V-Lab
iTraxx/CBOE Europe Crossover 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
115.15%
increased by 3.87%
1 Week
113.58%
increased by 2.30%
1 Month
109.28%
decreased by 2.00%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 11:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.05 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 40.7879 | 10.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0924 | 16.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9358 | 145.25*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.0504 | 4.79*** |
Persistence:
0.936
Half-life:
10 days
Other iTraxx/CBOE Europe Crossover 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Volatility Indices