V-Lab
iTraxx/CBOE Europe Crossover 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
137.03%
increased by 44.06%
1 Week
133.04%
increased by 40.07%
1 Month
122.06%
increased by 29.09%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8725 | 16.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1670 | 16.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8319 | 111.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1365 | -11.05*** |
Persistence:
0.931
Half-life:
10 days
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