V-Lab
iTraxx/CBOE Europe Crossover 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
87.23%
decreased by 1.07%
1 Week
89.28%
increased by 0.98%
1 Month
94.42%
increased by 6.12%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 11:39 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8553 | 17.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1651 | 16.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8335 | 113.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1352 | -11.04*** |
Persistence:
0.931
Half-life:
10 days
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