V-Lab
iTraxx/CBOE Europe Crossover 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
118.09%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
118.84%
increased by 0.62%
1 Month
120.05%
increased by 1.83%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 11:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6943 | 11.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1393 | 4.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7055 | 10.30*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0039 | -4.78*** |
Persistence:
0.845
Half-life:
4 days
Other iTraxx/CBOE Europe Crossover 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices