V-Lab
iTraxx/CBOE Europe Crossover 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
135.46%
increased by 36.38%
1 Week
131.78%
increased by 32.70%
1 Month
125.51%
increased by 26.43%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6952 | 11.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1409 | 4.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7041 | 10.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0039 | -4.73*** |
Persistence:
0.845
Half-life:
4 days
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