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V-Lab

iTraxx/CBOE Europe Crossover 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

85.53%

decreased by 1.26%

1 Week

87.86%

increased by 1.07%

1 Month

94.33%

increased by 7.54%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 11:40 AM UTC

Date Range:

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graph of iTraxx/CBOE Europe Crossover 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.37 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7633
6.72***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0878
16.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8644
130.41***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5614
-13.38***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.3704
16.37***

Persistence:

0.944

Half-life:

12 days