V-Lab
iTraxx/CBOE Europe Crossover 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
85.53%
1 Week
87.86%
1 Month
94.33%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 11:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.37 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7633 | 6.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0878 | 16.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8644 | 130.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5614 | -13.38*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.3704 | 16.37*** |
Persistence:
0.944
Half-life:
12 days
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