V-Lab
CBOE Apple Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
81.71%
1 Week
87.93%
1 Month
100.34%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. The volatility power δ = 1.11 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0000 | 1.78* |
| αARCH | 0.0847 | 1.95* |
| βGARCH | 0.8116 | 18.93*** |
| γleverage | -1.0000 | -1.38 |
| δpower | 1.1119 | 4.53*** |
0.885
Persistence6d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 1.78* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0847 | 1.95* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8116 | 18.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | -1.38 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1119 | 4.53*** |
Persistence:
0.885
Half-life:
6 days
Other CBOE Apple Volatility Index Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices