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V-Lab

CBOE Apple Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

81.71%

decreased by 2.41%

1 Week

87.93%

increased by 3.81%

1 Month

100.34%

increased by 16.22%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Apple Volatility Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. The volatility power δ = 1.11 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifeδ = 1.11 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0000
1.78*
αARCH0.0847
1.95*
βGARCH0.8116
18.93***
γleverage-1.0000
-1.38
δpower1.1119
4.53***

0.885

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0000
1.78*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0847
1.95*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8116
18.93***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.0000
-1.38
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1119
4.53***

Persistence:

0.885

Half-life:

6 days