EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
94.88%
decreased by 1.77%
1 Week
95.99%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Month
99.22%
increased by 2.57%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 04:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. The volatility power δ = 0.79 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2383 | 13.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0794 | 42.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8924 | 236.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | -164.80*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.7917 | 23.37*** |
Persistence:
0.947
Half-life:
13 days
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