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V-Lab

EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

94.88%

decreased by 1.77%

1 Week

95.99%

decreased by 0.66%

1 Month

99.22%

increased by 2.57%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 04:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. The volatility power δ = 0.79 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2383
13.01***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0794
42.28***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8924
236.77***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.0000
-164.80***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.7917
23.37***

Persistence:

0.947

Half-life:

13 days