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EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

121.39%

increased by 23.25%

1 Week

119.81%

increased by 21.67%

1 Month

115.38%

increased by 17.24%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 04:30 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1999 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. The volatility power δ = 0.79 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 13-day half-lifeδ = 0.79 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.2378
3.27***
αARCH0.0793
10.65***
βGARCH0.8922
59.15***
γleverage-1.0000
-42.87***
δpower0.7881
5.85***

0.947

Persistence

13d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2378
3.27***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0793
10.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8922
59.15***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.0000
-42.87***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.7881
5.85***

Persistence:

0.947

Half-life:

13 days