CBOE Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
114.42%
increased by 10.95%
1 Week
113.51%
increased by 10.04%
1 Month
111.33%
increased by 7.86%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. The volatility power δ = 1.14 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7238 | 10.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0883 | 7.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8401 | 163.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | -4.62*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1368 | 29.97*** |
Persistence:
0.918
Half-life:
8 days
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