CBOE Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
137.53%
1 Week
133.21%
1 Month
122.78%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 26, 2026 at 11:37 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. The volatility power δ = 1.14 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7318 | 2.69*** |
| αARCH | 0.0883 | 1.77* |
| βGARCH | 0.8395 | 40.88*** |
| γleverage | -1.0000 | -1.12 |
| δpower | 1.1397 | 7.54*** |
0.918
Persistence8d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7318 | 2.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0883 | 1.77* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8395 | 40.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | -1.12 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1397 | 7.54*** |
Persistence:
0.918
Half-life:
8 days
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