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CBOE Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

137.53%

decreased by 8.26%

1 Week

133.21%

decreased by 12.58%

1 Month

122.78%

decreased by 23.01%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 26, 2026 at 11:37 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Volatility Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. The volatility power δ = 1.14 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-lifeδ = 1.14 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7318
2.69***
αARCH0.0883
1.77*
βGARCH0.8395
40.88***
γleverage-1.0000
-1.12
δpower1.1397
7.54***

0.918

Persistence

8d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7318
2.69***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0883
1.77*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8395
40.88***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.0000
-1.12
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1397
7.54***

Persistence:

0.918

Half-life:

8 days