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V-Lab

CBOE Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

114.42%

increased by 10.95%

1 Week

113.51%

increased by 10.04%

1 Month

111.33%

increased by 7.86%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Volatility Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. The volatility power δ = 1.14 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7238
10.74***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0883
7.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8401
163.96***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.0000
-4.62***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1368
29.97***

Persistence:

0.918

Half-life:

8 days