V-Lab
iTraxx/CBOE Europe Crossover 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
100.78%
1 Week
105.24%
1 Month
114.67%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 11:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1690 | 19.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8086 | 71.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1412 | -15.82*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0098 | 0.54 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0028 | 2.99*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9972 | 854.47*** |
Persistence:
0.907
Half-life:
7 days
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