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V-Lab

iTraxx/CBOE Europe Crossover 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

100.78%

decreased by 0.80%

1 Week

105.24%

increased by 3.66%

1 Month

114.67%

increased by 13.09%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 11:40 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iTraxx/CBOE Europe Crossover 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1690
19.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8086
71.66***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1412
-15.82***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0098
0.54
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0028
2.99***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9972
854.47***

Persistence:

0.907

Half-life:

7 days