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V-Lab

ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 3 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

36.67%

decreased by 0.96%

1 Week

36.77%

decreased by 0.86%

1 Month

37.02%

decreased by 0.61%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 3 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 26, 1995 to Jul 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6274
4.56***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0992
4.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8199
19.62***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.0384
-0.45
γ20.0161
0.13
γ30.0639
0.93
γ4-0.0773
-1.64
γ50.0093
0.19
γ60.1206
2.79***
γ7-0.1906
-5.16***
γ80.1349
5.05***

Persistence:

0.919

Half-life:

8 days