V-Lab
ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 3 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
43.59%
increased by 4.42%
1 Week
42.60%
increased by 3.43%
1 Month
40.09%
increased by 0.92%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 26, 1995 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6274 | 4.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0992 | 4.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8199 | 19.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0384 | -0.45 |
| γ2 | 0.0161 | 0.13 |
| γ3 | 0.0639 | 0.93 |
| γ4 | -0.0773 | -1.64 |
| γ5 | 0.0093 | 0.19 |
| γ6 | 0.1206 | 2.79*** |
| γ7 | -0.1906 | -5.16*** |
| γ8 | 0.1349 | 5.05*** |
Persistence:
0.919
Half-life:
8 days
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