India NSE Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
134.16%
decreased by 19.11%
1 Week
110.23%
decreased by 43.04%
1 Month
79.54%
decreased by 73.73%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 3, 2008 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1204 | 5.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1526 | 4.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5774 | 9.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0546 | 0.78 |
| γ2 | 0.0500 | 0.44 |
| γ3 | -0.2165 | -1.94* |
| γ4 | 0.2292 | 2.32** |
| γ5 | -0.2083 | -3.12*** |
| γ6 | 0.1267 | 2.77*** |
Persistence:
0.730
Half-life:
2 days
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