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India NSE Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

102.14%

increased by 9.69%

1 Week

99.44%

increased by 6.99%

1 Month

95.91%

increased by 3.46%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of India NSE Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 3, 2008 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.0739
5.54***
αARCH0.1267
4.45***
βGARCH0.6617
12.66***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ10.0213
0.25
γ20.1288
0.90
γ3-0.2957
-2.34**
γ40.2804
2.85***
γ5-0.2311
-3.05***
γ60.1649
2.25**
γ7-0.0994
-1.59

0.788

Persistence

3d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.0739
5.54***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1267
4.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6617
12.66***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ10.0213
0.25
γ20.1288
0.90
γ3-0.2957
-2.34**
γ40.2804
2.85***
γ5-0.2311
-3.05***
γ60.1649
2.25**
γ7-0.0994
-1.59

Persistence:

0.788

Half-life:

3 days