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India NSE Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

100.99%

decreased by 0.71%

1 Week

98.33%

decreased by 3.37%

1 Month

94.87%

decreased by 6.83%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of India NSE Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 3, 2008 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.0749
5.54***
αARCH0.1270
4.44***
βGARCH0.6610
12.55***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ10.0209
0.24
γ20.1301
0.91
γ3-0.2974
-2.35**
γ40.2811
2.86***
γ5-0.2303
-3.03***
γ60.1629
2.20**
γ7-0.0977
-1.53

0.788

Persistence

3d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.0749
5.54***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1270
4.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6610
12.55***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ10.0209
0.24
γ20.1301
0.91
γ3-0.2974
-2.35**
γ40.2811
2.86***
γ5-0.2303
-3.03***
γ60.1629
2.20**
γ7-0.0977
-1.53

Persistence:

0.788

Half-life:

3 days