V-Lab
India NSE Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
100.99%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Week
98.33%
decreased by 3.37%
1 Month
94.87%
decreased by 6.83%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 3, 2008 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.0749 | 5.54*** |
| αARCH | 0.1270 | 4.44*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6610 | 12.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0209 | 0.24 |
| γ2 | 0.1301 | 0.91 |
| γ3 | -0.2974 | -2.35** |
| γ4 | 0.2811 | 2.86*** |
| γ5 | -0.2303 | -3.03*** |
| γ6 | 0.1629 | 2.20** |
| γ7 | -0.0977 | -1.53 |
0.788
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0749 | 5.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1270 | 4.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6610 | 12.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0209 | 0.24 |
| γ2 | 0.1301 | 0.91 |
| γ3 | -0.2974 | -2.35** |
| γ4 | 0.2811 | 2.86*** |
| γ5 | -0.2303 | -3.03*** |
| γ6 | 0.1629 | 2.20** |
| γ7 | -0.0977 | -1.53 |
Persistence:
0.788
Half-life:
3 days
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