India NSE Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
102.14%
increased by 9.69%
1 Week
99.44%
increased by 6.99%
1 Month
95.91%
increased by 3.46%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 3, 2008 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.0739 | 5.54*** |
| αARCH | 0.1267 | 4.45*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6617 | 12.66*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0213 | 0.25 |
| γ2 | 0.1288 | 0.90 |
| γ3 | -0.2957 | -2.34** |
| γ4 | 0.2804 | 2.85*** |
| γ5 | -0.2311 | -3.05*** |
| γ6 | 0.1649 | 2.25** |
| γ7 | -0.0994 | -1.59 |
0.788
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0739 | 5.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1267 | 4.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6617 | 12.66*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0213 | 0.25 |
| γ2 | 0.1288 | 0.90 |
| γ3 | -0.2957 | -2.34** |
| γ4 | 0.2804 | 2.85*** |
| γ5 | -0.2311 | -3.05*** |
| γ6 | 0.1649 | 2.25** |
| γ7 | -0.0994 | -1.59 |
Persistence:
0.788
Half-life:
3 days
Other India NSE Volatility Index Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices