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V-Lab

India NSE Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

70.86%

decreased by 8.63%

1 Week

67.31%

decreased by 12.18%

1 Month

63.57%

decreased by 15.92%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of India NSE Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 3, 2008 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1204
5.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1526
4.40***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5774
9.27***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ10.0546
0.78
γ20.0500
0.44
γ3-0.2165
-1.94*
γ40.2292
2.32**
γ5-0.2083
-3.12***
γ60.1267
2.77***

Persistence:

0.730

Half-life:

2 days