V-Lab
India NSE Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
80.91%
decreased by 3.62%
1 Week
84.77%
increased by 0.24%
1 Month
89.43%
increased by 4.90%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 3, 2008 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.0763 | 5.53*** |
| αARCH | 0.1262 | 4.41*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6632 | 12.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0205 | 0.24 |
| γ2 | 0.1305 | 0.91 |
| γ3 | -0.2965 | -2.35** |
| γ4 | 0.2779 | 2.83*** |
| γ5 | -0.2243 | -2.94*** |
| γ6 | 0.1530 | 2.02** |
| γ7 | -0.0879 | -1.33 |
0.789
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0763 | 5.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1262 | 4.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6632 | 12.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0205 | 0.24 |
| γ2 | 0.1305 | 0.91 |
| γ3 | -0.2965 | -2.35** |
| γ4 | 0.2779 | 2.83*** |
| γ5 | -0.2243 | -2.94*** |
| γ6 | 0.1530 | 2.02** |
| γ7 | -0.0879 | -1.33 |
Persistence:
0.789
Half-life:
3 days
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