V-Lab
S&P/BMV IPC VIX Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
52.60%
increased by 0.24%
1 Week
64.51%
increased by 12.15%
1 Month
75.41%
increased by 23.05%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2015 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2521 | 3.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3396 | 2.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4140 | 3.85*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.6177 | -1.96** |
| γ2 | 2.0954 | 1.40 |
| γ3 | 0.2150 | 0.18 |
| γ4 | -1.6489 | -1.59 |
| γ5 | 2.0981 | 1.84* |
| γ6 | -2.3234 | -1.80* |
| γ7 | 1.8468 | 1.35 |
| γ8 | -0.9712 | -0.79 |
| γ9 | 0.5713 | 0.34 |
| γ10 | -0.3830 | -0.26 |
Persistence:
0.754
Half-life:
2 days
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