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V-Lab

S&P/BMV IPC VIX Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

42.51%

increased by 0.39%

1 Week

52.18%

increased by 10.06%

1 Month

57.81%

increased by 15.69%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/BMV IPC VIX S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2015 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1216
3.18***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3898
2.23**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2301
1.99**
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-1.7153
-2.17**
γ22.1977
1.55
γ30.2568
0.23
γ4-1.7528
-1.82*
γ52.2689
2.15**
γ6-2.7185
-2.56**
γ72.4957
2.73***
γ8-1.5603
-1.44
γ90.7194
0.60

Persistence:

0.620

Half-life:

1 days