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V-Lab

S&P/BMV IPC VIX Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

52.60%

increased by 0.24%

1 Week

64.51%

increased by 12.15%

1 Month

75.41%

increased by 23.05%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/BMV IPC VIX S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2015 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2521
3.04***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3396
2.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4140
3.85***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-1.6177
-1.96**
γ22.0954
1.40
γ30.2150
0.18
γ4-1.6489
-1.59
γ52.0981
1.84*
γ6-2.3234
-1.80*
γ71.8468
1.35
γ8-0.9712
-0.79
γ90.5713
0.34
γ10-0.3830
-0.26

Persistence:

0.754

Half-life:

2 days