S&P/BMV IPC VIX Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
42.51%
increased by 0.39%
1 Week
52.18%
increased by 10.06%
1 Month
57.81%
increased by 15.69%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2015 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1216 | 3.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3898 | 2.23** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2301 | 1.99** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -1.7153 | -2.17** |
| γ2 | 2.1977 | 1.55 |
| γ3 | 0.2568 | 0.23 |
| γ4 | -1.7528 | -1.82* |
| γ5 | 2.2689 | 2.15** |
| γ6 | -2.7185 | -2.56** |
| γ7 | 2.4957 | 2.73*** |
| γ8 | -1.5603 | -1.44 |
| γ9 | 0.7194 | 0.60 |
Persistence:
0.620
Half-life:
1 days
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