V-Lab
S&P/BMV IPC VIX Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
51.88%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
63.83%
increased by 11.73%
1 Month
75.16%
increased by 23.06%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:49 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2015 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2579 | 2.96*** |
| αARCH | 0.3450 | 2.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4183 | 3.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.6446 | -1.98** |
| γ2 | 2.1431 | 1.42 |
| γ3 | 0.1677 | 0.14 |
| γ4 | -1.5906 | -1.52 |
| γ5 | 2.0227 | 1.75* |
| γ6 | -2.2190 | -1.67* |
| γ7 | 1.7104 | 1.19 |
| γ8 | -0.8240 | -0.66 |
| γ9 | 0.4278 | 0.26 |
| γ10 | -0.2716 | -0.19 |
0.763
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2579 | 2.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3450 | 2.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4183 | 3.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.6446 | -1.98** |
| γ2 | 2.1431 | 1.42 |
| γ3 | 0.1677 | 0.14 |
| γ4 | -1.5906 | -1.52 |
| γ5 | 2.0227 | 1.75* |
| γ6 | -2.2190 | -1.67* |
| γ7 | 1.7104 | 1.19 |
| γ8 | -0.8240 | -0.66 |
| γ9 | 0.4278 | 0.26 |
| γ10 | -0.2716 | -0.19 |
Persistence:
0.763
Half-life:
3 days
Other S&P/BMV IPC VIX Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices