V-Lab
S&P/BMV IPC VIX GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
53.49%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
64.33%
increased by 10.60%
1 Month
77.77%
increased by 24.04%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2015 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 12.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2754 | 9.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5499 | 26.18*** |
Persistence:
0.825
Half-life:
4 days
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