V-Lab
S&P/BMV IPC VIX GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
36.00%
1 Week
38.67%
1 Month
47.49%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2015 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 97 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.34 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 61.1824 | 1.10 |
| αARCH | 0.1092 | 22.56*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9929 | 172.68*** |
| νDF | 2.3363 | 59.82*** |
0.993
Persistence97d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 61.1824 | 1.10 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1092 | 22.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9929 | 172.68*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.3363 | 59.82*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
97 days
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