S&P/BMV IPC VIX GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
41.29%
1 Week
43.40%
1 Month
50.66%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 08:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2015 to Oct 22, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 101 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.36 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 58.9247 | 1.12 |
| αscore | 0.1093 | 22.65*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9932 | 183.44*** |
| νDF | 2.3570 | 58.12*** |
0.993
Persistence101d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 58.9247 | 1.12 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1093 | 22.65*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9932 | 183.44*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.3570 | 58.12*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
101 days
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