V-Lab
S&P/BMV IPC VIX GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
35.37%
1 Week
37.97%
1 Month
46.61%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2015 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 101 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.34 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 60.7018 | 1.13 |
| αARCH | 0.1081 | 22.55*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9932 | 184.16*** |
| νDF | 2.3404 | 61.02*** |
0.993
Persistence101d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 60.7018 | 1.13 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1081 | 22.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9932 | 184.16*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.3404 | 61.02*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
101 days
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