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V-Lab

S&P/BMV IPC VIX GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

40.16%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Week

43.39%

increased by 3.20%

1 Month

53.81%

increased by 13.62%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of S&P/BMV IPC VIX GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2015 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.29 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

62.3378
3.68***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1033
78.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9903
411.10***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.2937
190.51***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

71 days