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S&P/BMV IPC VIX GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

36.00%

increased by 0.31%

1 Week

38.67%

increased by 2.98%

1 Month

47.49%

increased by 11.80%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of S&P/BMV IPC VIX GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2015 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 97 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.34 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~97 daysv = 2.34 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst61.1824
1.10
αARCH0.1092
22.56***
βGARCH0.9929
172.68***
νDF2.3363
59.82***

0.993

Persistence

97d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

61.1824
1.10
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1092
22.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9929
172.68***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.3363
59.82***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

97 days