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V-Lab

S&P/BMV IPC VIX GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

35.02%

increased by 1.85%

1 Week

37.93%

increased by 4.76%

1 Month

47.42%

increased by 14.25%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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graph of S&P/BMV IPC VIX GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2015 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 91 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

60.8279
1.05
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1105
22.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9924
152.21***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.3307
56.75***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

91 days