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S&P/BMV IPC VIX GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

41.29%

increased by 5.82%

1 Week

43.40%

increased by 7.93%

1 Month

50.66%

increased by 15.19%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 08:59 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/BMV IPC VIX GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2015 to Oct 22, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 101 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.36 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~101 daysv = 2.36 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run58.9247
1.12
αscore0.1093
22.65***
βpersistence0.9932
183.44***
νDF2.3570
58.12***

0.993

Persistence

101d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

58.9247
1.12
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1093
22.65***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9932
183.44***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.3570
58.12***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

101 days