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S&P/BMV IPC VIX GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

35.37%

decreased by 3.63%

1 Week

37.97%

decreased by 1.03%

1 Month

46.61%

increased by 7.61%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/BMV IPC VIX GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2015 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 101 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.34 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~101 daysv = 2.34 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst60.7018
1.13
αARCH0.1081
22.55***
βGARCH0.9932
184.16***
νDF2.3404
61.02***

0.993

Persistence

101d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

60.7018
1.13
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1081
22.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9932
184.16***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.3404
61.02***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

101 days