V-Lab
S&P/BMV IPC VIX GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
35.02%
increased by 1.85%
1 Week
37.93%
increased by 4.76%
1 Month
47.42%
increased by 14.25%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2015 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 91 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 60.8279 | 1.05 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1105 | 22.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9924 | 152.21*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.3307 | 56.75*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
91 days
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