S&P/BMV IPC VIX GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
53.60%
increased by 0.09%
1 Week
64.65%
increased by 11.14%
1 Month
78.62%
increased by 25.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2015 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 12.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2246 | 7.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5500 | 26.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1120 | 1.36 |
Persistence:
0.831
Half-life:
4 days
Other S&P/BMV IPC VIX Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices