S&P/BMV IPC VIX GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
54.88%
increased by 2.61%
1 Week
66.23%
increased by 13.96%
1 Month
81.68%
increased by 29.41%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 08:58 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2015 to Oct 22, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 3.24*** |
| αARCH | 0.2279 | 2.10** |
| βGARCH | 0.5173 | 7.67*** |
| γleverage | 0.2045 | 0.74 |
0.847
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 3.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2279 | 2.10** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5173 | 7.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2045 | 0.74 |
Persistence:
0.847
Half-life:
4 days
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