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S&P/BMV IPC VIX GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

52.70%

increased by 0.02%

1 Week

64.83%

increased by 12.15%

1 Month

80.94%

increased by 28.26%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:47 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/BMV IPC VIX GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2015 to Sep 10, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
3.21***
αARCH0.2161
2.07**
βGARCH0.5277
7.92***
γleverage0.2039
0.76

0.846

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
3.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2161
2.07**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5277
7.92***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2039
0.76

Persistence:

0.846

Half-life:

4 days