V-Lab
S&P/BMV IPC VIX GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
52.07%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Week
64.48%
increased by 11.87%
1 Month
80.93%
increased by 28.32%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2015 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 3.22*** |
| αARCH | 0.2203 | 2.08** |
| βGARCH | 0.5240 | 7.84*** |
| γleverage | 0.2041 | 0.75 |
0.846
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 3.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2203 | 2.08** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5240 | 7.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2041 | 0.75 |
Persistence:
0.846
Half-life:
4 days
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