V-Lab
S&P/BMV IPC VIX GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
53.00%
increased by 0.31%
1 Week
64.95%
increased by 12.26%
1 Month
80.79%
increased by 28.10%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2015 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 3.20*** |
| αARCH | 0.2109 | 2.06** |
| βGARCH | 0.5324 | 8.03*** |
| γleverage | 0.2024 | 0.76 |
0.844
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 3.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2109 | 2.06** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5324 | 8.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2024 | 0.76 |
Persistence:
0.844
Half-life:
4 days
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