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V-Lab

S&P/BMV IPC VIX GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

53.60%

increased by 0.09%

1 Week

64.65%

increased by 11.14%

1 Month

78.62%

increased by 25.11%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/BMV IPC VIX GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2015 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
12.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2246
7.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5500
26.80***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1120
1.36

Persistence:

0.831

Half-life:

4 days