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S&P/BMV IPC VIX GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

54.88%

increased by 2.61%

1 Week

66.23%

increased by 13.96%

1 Month

81.68%

increased by 29.41%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 08:58 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/BMV IPC VIX GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2015 to Oct 22, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
3.24***
αARCH0.2279
2.10**
βGARCH0.5173
7.67***
γleverage0.2045
0.74

0.847

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
3.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2279
2.10**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5173
7.67***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2045
0.74

Persistence:

0.847

Half-life:

4 days