V-Lab
S&P/BMV IPC VIX APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
50.66%
decreased by 1.79%
1 Week
66.97%
increased by 14.52%
1 Month
85.45%
increased by 33.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2015 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. The volatility power δ = 0.81 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 4.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2841 | 11.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5366 | 13.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0112 | 0.16 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8113 | 8.02*** |
Persistence:
0.763
Half-life:
3 days
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