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V-Lab

S&P/BMV IPC VIX APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

50.66%

decreased by 1.79%

1 Week

66.97%

increased by 14.52%

1 Month

85.45%

increased by 33.00%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/BMV IPC VIX APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2015 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. The volatility power δ = 0.81 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0000
4.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2841
11.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5366
13.58***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0112
0.16
δ

power

Transformation power

0.8113
8.02***

Persistence:

0.763

Half-life:

3 days