V-Lab
S&P/BMV IPC VIX EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
50.85%
increased by 0.99%
1 Week
62.05%
increased by 12.19%
1 Month
74.87%
increased by 25.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2015 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8640 | 2.85*** |
| αARCH | 0.4154 | 5.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7332 | 7.76*** |
| γleverage | -0.0319 | -0.54 |
0.733
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8640 | 2.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4154 | 5.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7332 | 7.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0319 | -0.54 |
Persistence:
0.733
Half-life:
2 days
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