V-Lab
S&P/BMV IPC VIX AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
57.72%
decreased by 0.78%
1 Week
72.31%
increased by 13.81%
1 Month
81.19%
increased by 22.69%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2015 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 10.1511 | 16.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4149 | 11.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2238 | 8.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1511 | 0.56 |
Persistence:
0.639
Half-life:
2 days
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