V-Lab
KOSPI 200 Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
97.21%
decreased by 10.72%
1 Week
95.35%
decreased by 12.58%
1 Month
91.62%
decreased by 16.31%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:50 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2003 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -2.94) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.5738 | 2.61*** |
| αARCH | 0.1388 | 6.37*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7391 | 29.68*** |
| γleverage | -2.9405 | -3.46*** |
0.878
Persistence5d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5738 | 2.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1388 | 6.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7391 | 29.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -2.9405 | -3.46*** |
Persistence:
0.878
Half-life:
5 days
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