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V-Lab

KOSPI 200 Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

97.21%

decreased by 10.72%

1 Week

95.35%

decreased by 12.58%

1 Month

91.62%

decreased by 16.31%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:50 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of KOSPI 200 Volatility Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 2003 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -2.94) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.5738
2.61***
αARCH0.1388
6.37***
βGARCH0.7391
29.68***
γleverage-2.9405
-3.46***

0.878

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.5738
2.61***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1388
6.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7391
29.68***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-2.9405
-3.46***

Persistence:

0.878

Half-life:

5 days