V-Lab
DAX Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
98.75%
decreased by 6.83%
1 Week
97.39%
decreased by 8.19%
1 Month
94.03%
decreased by 11.55%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1992 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -2.78) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7667 | 5.19*** |
| αARCH | 0.1077 | 12.30*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8103 | 70.49*** |
| γleverage | -2.7813 | -5.54*** |
0.918
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7667 | 5.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1077 | 12.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8103 | 70.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -2.7813 | -5.54*** |
Persistence:
0.918
Half-life:
8 days
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