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V-Lab

DAX Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

98.75%

decreased by 6.83%

1 Week

97.39%

decreased by 8.19%

1 Month

94.03%

decreased by 11.55%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of DAX Volatility Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1992 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -2.78) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.7667
5.19***
αARCH0.1077
12.30***
βGARCH0.8103
70.49***
γleverage-2.7813
-5.54***

0.918

Persistence

8d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7667
5.19***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1077
12.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8103
70.49***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-2.7813
-5.54***

Persistence:

0.918

Half-life:

8 days