CBOE VIX Indicative Ask Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
92.88%
decreased by 3.19%
1 Week
102.23%
increased by 6.16%
1 Month
115.15%
increased by 19.08%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 01:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 18, 2009 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -7.38) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.0613 | 7.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1284 | 32.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7030 | 138.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -7.3803 | -28.33*** |
Persistence:
0.831
Half-life:
4 days
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